1904 United States presidential election

The 1904 United States presidential election was the 37th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 1932. The election saw Farmer-Laborite William Randolph Hearst, the Governor of New York, defeat Federal Republican nominee John Hay, a former ambassador to the United Kingdom. The election saw the minor Liberal Anti-Prohibitionist and Progressive parties co-nominate Hearst and Hay respectively, with the latter party dissolving soon after.

Hearst's narrow victory was Farmer-Labor's first since Henry George's own narrow victory in 1888. Hearst won New York, Missouri, and Oregon by margins of less than 0.5%, totaling 61 electoral votes and far more than enough to have given Hay the Presidency. Hay increased his party's popular vote share by over 3%, earning the highest popular vote share for a losing presidential candidate in history.

Farmer-Labor Party nomination
Main article: 1904 Farmer-Labor Party presidential nomination

For a decade following the midterms of 1890, the Farmer-Labor Party found themselves facing defeat after defeat, reduced to a tiny minority in both houses of Congress. Yet, the midterms of 1902 served as a beacon of hope for the party, with Federal Republicans losing their House majority, 8 Senate seats, and defeating Farmer-Labor by only 1.3% in the popular vote.

The primary season saw numerous candidates run for the Farmer-Labor nomination, with the frontrunner being media mogul turned Governor of New York William Randolph Hearst. In the primaries, Hearst defeated his numerous opponents, with Senator from Clay Richard F. Pettigrew being the sole opposition candidate by the convention. Hearst amassed enough delegates to receive his party's nomination by acclamation on the first ballot.

With the Liberal Anti-Prohibitionists then behind the movement to draft President Dewey for a second term, Hearst sought to draft the moderate, hardly Farmer-Laborite and arguably conservative John Nance Garner, Speaker of the House of Representatives, for the vice presidential nomination. Opposing Dewey’s lethargy on anti-prohibitionism and seeking another avenue to power, the 36-year-old Texan agreed to join the 41-year-old New Yorker on the Farmer-Labor ticket, nominated with only eight votes to spare against a scattering of votes for others.

Federal Republican Party nomination
Main article: 1904 Federal Republican Party presidential nomination

To the shock of the nation, incumbent President George Dewey issued a letter to the nation announcing that he would not seek the presidency for a second term, yet clarifying that he would accept any nomination offered to him. Despite his letter, a movement to renominate Dewey persisted with the backing of a motley coalition of small government liberals, anti-prohibitionists, free traders, and La Follette-aligned progressives.

Following a contested primary season, Senator from Ohio William McKinley entered the convention with a plurality of delegates, with Dewey in a distant second. Over the course of the convention, Dewey and other candidates increased their shares of delegates, but no candidate attained a majority. On the 12th ballot, the dark horse candidacy of former ambassador to the United Kingdom John Hay emerged, holding the potential to end the brokered convention. McKinley and Dewey, both conscious of the unlikelihood of their victory, tacitly backed out of the contest, allowing Hay to win a majority of delegates on the 13th ballot.

While appeasing the Dewey and McKinley wings of the Federal Republicans, Hay’s nomination failed to placate President Houston and the Progressives. Following a series of negotiations between party leaders, the Progressives agreed to endorse the Federal Republican ticket, provided that the candidate for Vice President was one of their own. Hay interceeded in the negotiations, suggesting Representative from Ohio James R. Garfield. Garfield was subsequently nominated by acclamation.

Campaign
The most important issues to the electorate in 1904 were the prohibition of alcohol, America's role in Moroland, and economics, with the issue of international foreign policy also holding significant sway.

Federal Republicans
The 66-year-old Hay, suffering from depression and worsening health following the death of his son, campaigned little and largely remained in his New Hampshire home, leaving campaigning to Garfield and local Federal Republican speakers. Bowing to party demands, the Hay campaign endorsed the maintenance of prohibition while nonetheless attempting to ensure that wet Federal Republicans remained with the party by stressing Hay's support for protectionist tariffs and the maintenance of the American annexation of Moroland; coupled with accusing Hearst of being a radical and noting Hearst's support for government ownership of utilities. Additionally, the team of the conservative Hay and progressive Garfield pitched themselves as a unity ticket for the nation, noting the economic boom and campaigning on "hey, hey, Hay! Four more years of a full dinner pail!" Meanwhile, although Hearst was responsible for an open endorsement of the Civil Rights Act of 1894 in the Farmer-Labor platform after years of opposing civil rights legislation, Hay and Garfield accused Hearst of maintaining his party's prior stance and argued that only they would properly enforce civil rights.

Farmer-Labor
The endorsement of prohibition by the Federal Republican platform coupled with the nomination of Garner led the Liberal Anti-Prohibitions to abandon their alliance with the Federal Republicans and endorse Hearst for President and a majority of Farmer-Labor candidates down the ballot. Campaigning through national tours coupled with a major effort from Hearst's newspapers, the ticket focused upon a repeal of alcohol prohibition, with Hearst clarifying his support for the maintenance of the prohibition of marijuana and other non-alcoholic drugs. While attempting to maintain his appeal to unions and other traditional constituencies, Hearst and Garner argued that the Farmer-Labor Party had moderated, with Hearst calling for the municipal ownership of public utilities rather than their ownership by the federal government. Hearst further focused on his successful efforts in weakening the power of Federal Republican political machines such as Tammany Hall and success in cutting the New York State budget through an anti-waste commission. On foreign policy, Hearst campaigned on anti-imperialism and supported a withdrawal from Moroland, noting his support for the Pacific War in response to attacks upon his patriotism. Hearst also adopted an anti-British Empire stance on foreign policy reminiscent of that of President George's support for Irish, Boer, and Indian independence, accusing Hay, the former Ambassador to the United Kingdom, of being too close to British interests.

Results
While Hearst entered the fall campaign with a 5% lead in the polls, his actual victory would be razor-thin. Hay's strong performance on the presidential level has been credited with preventing Farmer-Labor from creating a governing trifecta. While Hearst's support for a repeal of prohibition likely carried him over the top in the crucial state of New York, this stance may have cost him traditionally Farmer-Labor-favorable states such as Montana and Minnesota.

As of 1939, Hearst's popular vote percentage in this election is the highest of any Farmer-Labor presidential nominee. Conversely, Hay's popular vote percentage in this election was the then-highest of any Federal Republican presidential nominee, surpassed only by Theodore Roosevelt's 1908 performance.

Owing to disappointment with Hearst's nomination among Farmer-Labor's more-radical flank, Richard F. Pettigrew won a large number of write-in votes in several states, as well as 2 electors who declared their intent to vote for him for the presidency. However, the narrowness of the election convinced the duo to remain pledged to Hearst.

Close states
Margin of victory less than 1% (64 electoral votes):
 * 1) Montana, 0.001% – 3 electoral votes
 * 2) Missouri, <0.5% – 18 electoral votes
 * 3) New York, <0.5% – 39 electoral votes
 * 4) Oregon, <0.5% – 4 electoral votes

Margin of victory less than 5% (173 electoral votes):
 * 1) Illinois, 1% – 27 electoral votes
 * 2) Minnesota, 1% – 11 electoral votes
 * 3) Kentucky, 1% – 13 electoral votes
 * 4) Virginia, 1.7% – 12 electoral votes
 * 5) Cuba, 2% – 16 electoral votes
 * 6) Houston, 2% – 4 electoral votes
 * 7) Indiana, 2% – 15 electoral votes
 * 8) Wyoming, 2% – 3 electoral votes
 * 9) Michigan, 3% – 14 electoral votes
 * 10) Tennessee, 3% – 12 electoral votes
 * 11) Wisconsin, 3% – 13 electoral votes
 * 12) California, 4% – 10 electoral votes
 * 13) Ohio, 4% – 23 electoral votes

Margin of victory less than 10% (148 electoral votes):
 * 1) Iowa, 5% – 13 electoral votes
 * 2) Louisiana, 5% – 9 electoral votes
 * 3) Vancouver, 5% – 3 electoral votes
 * 4) Mississippi, 5.7% – 10 electoral votes
 * 5) Puerto Rico, 6% – 3 electoral votes
 * 6) Texas, 6% – 26 electoral votes
 * 7) Florida, 7% – 5 electoral votes
 * 8) Clay, 8% – 4 electoral votes
 * 9) Nebraska, 8% – 18 electoral votes
 * 10) New Jersey, 8% – 12 electoral votes
 * 11) Georgia, 9% – 11 electoral votes
 * 12) Pennsylvania, 9% – 34 electoral votes